Weather

Danny??

A tropical wave off the coast of Puerto Rico is still slow to show organization, but the National Hurricane Center says it has a high probability of becoming a named storm soon. The track of the potential storm is hard to forecast because it doesn't have a center of rotation quite yet.

An upper level low just ahead of the storm has been dumping dry air into the storm causing it to loose energy. As this low continues to weaken it will allow the cluster of storms to gain energy and organization. Also as this upper level low dissipates, the wind shear will relax as well.

 

So far the models are not in very good agreement for the track of the storm. All of the GFS members keeps it well off the coast while a few models bring it dangerously close. Until a center of rotation forms it will be hard to forecast a path.

 

Meteorologist Marla Branson

Kids Head Back to School!

First day of school for Horry County students!  Looks like Mother Nature gets an "A" for today, as we look for plenty of sun, and just a stray storm along the immediate coastline.  Good luck to everyone heading back to class!

Katy Morgan | Meteorologist | kmorgan@wmbfnews.com

Bye Bye Bill...So Now What?

Once powerful hurricane Bill has blown past and is now just big ocean storm blowing around a few birds and getting the fish wet.  So now the question is:  what will we be tracking next?  We're in the heart of the hurricane season so the next storm is likely not too far away.

Over the last several days, most of the reliable computer models we look at to track tropical activity are showing something developing by the end of the week.  In fact, it's a little uncanny how many models are showing the same type of tropical development in the same general area.  So where is that area?  Right now it looks like somewhere in the Southwestern Atlantic or the near the Bahamas may be the next hot spot.  Take a look at just 3 of the models we look at:

 

Each of these images are valid Friday Morning! 

Now the exact placement and strength of anything that may develop is still very questionable.  In fact, whether or not ANYTHING develops is still the big question. 

Jamie Arnold  |  Meteorologist  |  jamiearnold@wmbfnews.com

Tropical Action

Things are heating up in the tropics.  We have our second depression that has formed, and will likely become our first named storm in the Atlantic for 2009.  Not only are we tracking TD#2, but another wave moving off the coast has the Storm Team's attention as well.

Let's start with Tropical Depression Two:

The latest from the National Hurricane Center:     

...DEPRESSION REMAINING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.8 WEST OR ABOUT
630 MILES...1015 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR.  A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

Convection within he storm has strengthened, and if an Air Force Recon team was flying through the storm, it would probably be named already.  In any case, most models do strengthen the storm to Tropical Storm status by the end of the day.  The next obstacle it'll have to fight is strong upper level winds, and some dry air.  If it tracks south, it'll bypass the heaviest of it and could become a threat down the road.

Tropical Wave Off Africa:

Another area we've been watching develop this morning is a new wave off the coast of Africa.  Showers and storms are already flaring within this system, and could easily become a depression by the weekend.  A couple things I noticed this morning...the closeness in proximity to the two storms.    Tropical Depression #2 (on the left in the picture) is forecasted to move west over the next couple of days, but may encounter some dry air, and strong winds.  The tropical wave behind it will continue to push off shore, into a more favorable environment for further development. 

Both Tropical Depression #2 and the tropical wave behind it are a least two weeks from posing a real threat to the US, if they survive that long.  But it's something to watch closely!

Katy Morgan | Meteorologist | kmorgan@wmbfnews.com

Another Good Forecast...

Just a few days after Dr. William Gray of Colorado State released his updated hurricane forecast, The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has done the same...with similar results.  Dr. Gray lowered his numbers slightly, and now NOAA is also expecting a more tame season. 

Its still important to remember though, that the total number of storms is not nearly as important as where those storms go.  Unfortunately, our ability to accurately forecast that leaves a lot to be desired.

Here is the full, updated forecast from NOAA.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090806_hurricaneupdate.html

Jamie Arnold  |  Meteorologist  |  jamiearnold@wmbfnews.com

Quiet Atlantic, Active Pacific...

Two months into hurricane season, and we have yet to name our first named storm, Ana (not that anyone is complaining!)  But on the other side of the US, storms are lighting up.  The Eastern Pacific has just named it's sixth storm, Hurricane Felicia...and it looks like it could become the first major hurricane in 2009 in the East Pacific.   This morning, maximum sustained winds were at 105 mph, making it a Category 2, but with warm waters, and favorable winds, Felicia is expected to strengthen later today.  Notice the latest IR satellite photo, to the right.  A center circulation can easily spotted, with the heaviest convection in the eastern and southeastern circles.  With an upper level trough sitting across the western US, the storm could be pulled a little north.  This would bring it into cooler waters, and eventually weaken by Friday or Saturday.  If you look at the forecast track, you'll notice Hawaii on the left side of the picture.  While it's not likely at this time that Felicia would have a big impact on the Aloha state, I'm sure the Hawaii beaches will experience some rough surf this weekend.  You can stay updated on the latest with Hurricane Felicia and Tropical Storm Enrique using our hurricane tracker.  Get familiar with it, so when the Atlantic season gets going, you'll be on top of the very latest! 

Katy Morgan | Meteorologist | kmorgan@wmbfnews.com

New Month...Same Weather

With the arrival of August we're left with more of the same in the weather department as the "Dog Days of summer roll on!

Average temperatures, which are at their warmest of the year, pretty much hold steady through the rest of the month.

Rainfall for the month can often be sporadic as nearly all of the average rain for the month comes from afternoon and evening storms.  While some areas may get drenched, others stay high and dry.  Occasionally, we see significant rains from tropical systems blowing by.

The only real change we usually see in August is an uptick in tropical activity.  So far the young month is quiet...lets hope it stays that way.

Jamie Arnold  |  Meteorologist  |  jamiearnold@wmbfnews.com

Still Quiet...But for How Long?

August is here and marks the beginning of the peak of the hurricane season.  While the entire season runs June through November, the next three months mark the peak of the season when we're most likely to see tropical storms and hurricanes.

So far, the season has been tame, but we cannot let our guards down.  Back in 1992, the first named storm did not occur until late August...and then went on to become the monster we know as Andrew.

  

The ocean's water is now warming to the point, that we start to look for development just about anywhere in the Atlantic.  The areas in orange below will just continue to expand as we head into September.

Remember to watch WMBF news daily for your tropical update.

Jamie Arnold  |  Meteorologist  |  jamiearnold@wmbfnews.com